Bear markets feel like winter: quiet, unforgiving, and easy to misread. But if you’re preparing for the next thaw, this is when seeds are planted. In a recent deep-dive on building a “best in class” crypto portfolio for 2023, the focus shifts away from high-frequency trading and toward a patient, long-term strategy-accumulating quality projects late in the cycle and letting time do the heavy lifting.
The backdrop matters. Cooling inflation prints, hints of a policy pivot, the 2024 Bitcoin halving on the horizon, and a broad deleveraging after high‑profile collapses all set the stage for renewed risk appetite. Against that canvas, the video lays out a practical framework for choosing winners: can a project survive a prolonged winter, is its fully diluted valuation reasonable, is the team still shipping, does its narrative have room to reignite, and is it leading its sector with real user and capital traction?
From there, the portfolio takes shape with a strong, conservative core-Bitcoin and Ethereum at the center-balanced by selective, higher-upside positions. The aim isn’t chasing 50x moonshots; it’s stacking resilient assets with asymmetry, sized to your tolerance for risk and time.
In this post, we unpack those selection criteria, the macro signals to watch, and the allocation logic-so you can approach the next bull run with a plan instead of a hunch. This is an exploration, not financial advice; use it as a blueprint to craft your own.
Build now in the late bear market and commit to a long hold through the next cycle
Quiet markets are where future wins are built. With inflation cooling, the FOMC signaling moderation, and the Bitcoin halving slated for April 2024, the setup favors disciplined accumulation. Much of the market’s excess leverage has already been flushed (think Celsius, FTX), and that cleansing reduces systemic risk before the next upswing. This is the moment to prioritize patience and a time horizon that spans the next cycle, stacking into strength rather than chasing hype, and letting compounding do the heavy lifting.
Center the portfolio on quality and diversity, then size positions by potential return and personal risk tolerance. A core anchored by Bitcoin and Ethereum (25% each) balances safety with meaningful upside; if both simply revisit and double their 2021 highs, that implies ~$136k BTC and ~$9.6k ETH-about an 8x from bear-market levels. For everything beyond the core, filter rigorously using these signals of staying power:
- Survivability: Can it endure a prolonged bear?
- Valuation sanity: FDV vs. direct competitors.
- Team drive: Still building, shipping, communicating.
- Narrative fit: Likely to catch hype next cycle.
- Category leadership: Users, TVL, and real adoption trending up.
| Core Holding | Weight | Why It’s Here |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 25% | Safest crypto asset; cycle driver |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 25% | Blue-chip infra; strong ROI potential |
Read the macro setup cooling inflation policy pivot signals leverage washouts and the pre halving tailwind
The market backdrop is quietly shifting in favor of disciplined accumulators. Recent CPI prints and the latest FOMC tone point to slowing inflation and potential policy easing in 2023, while the brutal deleveraging across crypto has cleared the air as lenders went bust and greedy players like Celsius and FTX collapsed. Historically, crypto uptrends often begin roughly a year before the Bitcoin halving (April 2024), making 2023 a plausible runway for the next cycle-especially in the late stage of a bear market when patience and quality selection matter most.
- Cooling inflation: CPI and FOMC messaging suggest pressures are easing.
- Policy pivot signals: The U.S. Fed may shift stance in 2023.
- Leverage washouts: Lending blow-ups cleared excess risk-taking.
- Pre-halving tailwind: Bull phases often spark ~12 months before April 2024.
For a 2023 portfolio, that translates to buying late-bear and holding quality through the recovery, filtering projects by survival odds, reasonable FDV, team commitment, sector leadership, and narratives likely to catch fire next cycle. Anchoring the core in Bitcoin and Ethereum aligns with this macro: they remain the safest crypto assets with compelling upside if the next peak reaches roughly 2x the 2021 highs-about $136k BTC and $9.6k ETH in the video’s estimates-while you selectively layer higher-beta plays around them as conditions improve.
| Macro cue | Portfolio move |
|---|---|
| Cooling CPI | Begin steady DCA into core assets |
| Pivot hints | Gradually increase risk-on satellites |
| Leverage flushed | Prioritize blue-chip strength first |
| Pre-halving window | Tilt to BTC/ETH, add leaders in hot narratives |
Select alts with a survival first checklist valuation sanity motivated teams sector leadership and growing adoption
In the late-stage bear market, treat alt selection like a survival triage: focus on durability, sober pricing, and builders who haven’t stopped shipping. Use a lean, repeatable checklist to filter fast and avoid hype-chasing; the goal is to stock your bag with projects that can still be popular when the next cycle heats up and you’re already positioned for the run.
- Survival runway: Will the token endure a prolonged bear, operationally and financially?
- Valuation sanity: Is the fully diluted valuation reasonable versus category peers?
- Motivated builders: Is the team still executing, communicating, and improving?
- Narrative with legs: Does it fit a theme likely to regain attention next cycle?
- Category leadership & adoption: Is it a sector leader with growing users and money metrics?
Apply the filter quickly, then size positions by conviction: green lights get core spots, yellow lights go to the watchlist, and anything failing the runway or valuation checks gets passed over. Prioritize teams still alive and building, tokens priced below overheated peers, narratives with clear catalysts, and products showing real traction through user growth and improving money metrics-not just social buzz.
| Criterion | Fast Check | Green Flag |
|---|---|---|
| Survival runway | Cash, burn, uptime | 24+ months runway |
| Valuation sanity | FDV vs peers | At or below median |
| Motivated team | Commits & updates | Shipping in bear |
| Narrative fit | Next-cycle relevance | Clear catalyst path |
| Leadership & adoption | Users & money metrics | Growing steadily |
Anchor with an equal weighted core in Bitcoin and Ethereum targeting conservative new highs while sizing by risk tolerance
Build your base where strength and survivability are proven. Splitting the core equally between Bitcoin and Ethereum (25% + 25%) concentrates on the assets most likely to endure a prolonged bear and recapture attention in the next cycle. With a conservative lens-simply revisiting and doubling the 2021 highs-targets land near $136,000 for BTC and $9,600 for ETH, which the thesis frames as roughly 8x potential from depressed levels. This anchor aligns with the late-bear setup: inflation cooling, a possible policy pivot in 2023, the April 2024 halving on deck, and excess leverage already washed out.
- Safety first: sector leaders, deep liquidity, and highest survival odds.
- Quality over quantity: fewer coins, higher conviction, cleaner compounding.
- Cycle-aware: bull markets often awaken ~1 year pre-halving.
| Asset | Core Weight | Conservative Target | Thesis Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 25% | $136,000 | Safest crypto, cycle driver |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 25% | $9,600 | Smart-contract leader, network effects |
Size the core to your risk tolerance, then let everything else orbit it. Keep the equal-weight base as the portfolio’s gravity and adjust satellites (higher-volatility plays) around it-not the other way around. Lower-risk profiles can tilt more capital into this core and trim speculative exposure; higher-risk profiles can still preserve the 50% anchor while expressing views with smaller, time-bound satellite positions. Reassess sizing as the macro thesis plays out-slowing inflation prints, halving proximity, and continued market deleveraging strengthen the case for the core.
- Conservative: defend the 50% anchor; add to BTC/ETH on weakness.
- Balanced: maintain the 25/25 core; rotate satellites without cannibalizing the base.
- Aggressive: keep the core intact; cap any single satellite to avoid outsized drawdowns.
To Wrap It Up
As the video reminds us, prepping for a bull market isn’t about timing perfection-it’s about structuring wisely while sentiment is quiet. In late bear markets, patience and quality matter most. A resilient core, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum, can anchor a plan that survives volatility, while selective bets around strong narratives and motivated teams provide room for upside.
Use the simple checklist discussed-survivability, fair valuation, team drive, narrative tailwinds, and sector leadership-to filter what stays and what goes. From there, position size according to your risk tolerance, not your hopes. Revisit your allocations on a schedule, not a headline.
Whether the next run begins in 2023 or takes longer, the groundwork is the same: diversify with intent, track the data, and let time do some of the heavy lifting. This is not financial advice-do your own research. And if you’ve built a framework you trust, share how you’re applying it; thoughtful process beats lucky guesses every cycle.